顽固的通货膨胀对美国意味着什么.S. 经济
顽固的通货膨胀对美国意味着什么.S. 经济2024年4月10日.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, and the increase in CPI — the most commonly cited measure of inflation — was higher than expected. 所有项目的通胀率（总体通胀率）为3%.比上年增长5%, 而“核心CPI”率, 剔除不稳定的食品和能源价格, 3的时候更高吗.8%. The month-over-month change was also higher than anticipated at 0.4%.1
The stock market dropped sharply on this news and continued to slide over the following days, while economists engaged in public handwringing over why their projections had been wrong and what the higher numbers might mean for the future path of interest rates. 事实上，大多数预测只差0.核心消费价格指数预计增长3%.7%而不是3%.8% — which hardly seems earth-shattering to the casual observer. But this small difference suggested that inflation was proving more resistant to the Federal Reserve’s high interest-rate regimen.2
It’s important to keep in mind that the most dangerous battle against inflation seems to have been won. CPI通胀峰值为9.1% in June 2022, and there were fears of runaway inflation similar to the 1980s. That did not happen, and inflation declined fairly steadily through the end of 2023. The issue now is that there has been upward movement during the first three months of 2024.3 这一点可以通过查看月度利率得到最好的体现, which capture the current situation better than the 12-month rates. March 2024 was the third month in a row of increases that point to higher inflation (see chart).
向上的趋势
居民消费价格指数环比上升0.1% to 0.2%相当于年通胀率约为2%, which the Federal Reserve considers appropriate for a healthy economy.
CPI单月变动
资料来源:美国.S. 美国劳工统计局，2024年 (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers)
更长久的High
While price increases hit consumers directly in the pocketbook, the stock market reacted primarily to what stubborn inflation might mean for the benchmark federal funds rate and U.S. 企业. 从2022年3月到2023年7月, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the funds rate from near-zero to the current range of 5.25%–5.5%，以减缓经济增长并抑制通货膨胀. 2023年底, with inflation apparently moving firmly toward the Fed’s target of 2%, the FOMC projected three quarter-percentage point decreases in 2024, and some observers expected the first decrease might be this spring. Now it’s clear that the Fed will have to wait to reduce rates.4–5
Higher interest rates make it more expensive for 企业 and consumers to borrow. 为企业, this can hold back expansion and cut into profits when revenue is used to service debt. 这对小公司来说尤其困难, 它们往往依靠债务来增长和维持运营. 科技公司和银行对高利率也很敏感.6
在理论上, high interest rates should hold back consumer spending and help bring prices down by suppressing demand. 不过，到目前为止，消费者支出依然强劲. 2024年3月, personal consumption expenditures — the standard measure of consumer spending — rose at an unusually strong monthly rate of 0.按现价美元计算为8%或0.经通货膨胀调整后为5%.7 就业市场也保持强劲, with unemployment below 4% for 26 consecutive months and wages rising steadily.8 The fear of keeping interest rates high for too long is that it could slow the economy too much, 但事实显然并非如此, 这使得美联储很难证明降息是合理的.
是什么推动了通货膨胀?
The Consumer Price Index measures price changes in a fixed market basket of goods and services, 一些输入比其他输入权重更大. 住房费用是最大的一类费用, accounting for about 36% of the index and almost 38% of the March increase in CPI.9 The good news is that measurements of shelter costs — primarily actual rent and estimated rent that homeowners might receive if they rented their homes — tend to lag current price changes, and other measures suggest that rents are leveling or going down.10
两个较小的组成部分的贡献远远超过了它们的重量. 一向不稳定的天然气价格仅占3%.3% of the index but accounted for 15% of the overall increase in CPI. 机动车辆保险价格仅占2%.5% of the index but accounted for more than 18% of the increase. Together, shelter, gasoline, and motor vehicle insurance drove 70% of March CPI inflation. 积极的一面是，食品价格上涨了13%.指数下跌5%，涨幅仅为0.1%，有效地降低了通货膨胀.11
而美联储则密切关注CPI, its preferred inflation measure is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, 哪个不太重视住房成本, 包括更广泛的输入, 并解释了消费者行为的变化. Due to these factors, PCE inflation tends to run lower than CPI. 3月份的同比增幅为2%.所有项目7%，2.核心个人消费支出增长8%，不包括食品和能源. 月度增幅为0.两项措施均为3%.12
尽管这些数字更接近美联储2%的目标, they are not low enough in the face of strong employment and consumer spending to suggest the Fed will reduce interest rates anytime soon. 美联储也不太可能加息. 现在, the central bank seems poised to give current interest rates more time to push inflation down to a healthy level, 理想情况下，经济活动不会明显放缓.13
所有投资都有风险, 包括可能的本金损失, and there is no guarantee that any 投资 strategy will be successful. Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass.