国际投资：中国和日本的不同命运
The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed markets outside of the United States, advanced 15% in 2023, while U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index returned 24%.1 One of the world’s hottest developed stock markets was in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 rose 28% in 2023, delivering the best performance in Asia.2 On the other hand, 在仍被视为新兴市场的中国，基准的沪深300指数同期跌幅超过11%.3
国际投资提供的增长机会可能不同于在美国投资, 哪些可以帮助提高回报和/或增强投资组合的多样化. It may help to consider the risks, economic forces, 政府的政策可能会继续影响这两个经常发生新闻的亚洲市场和世界其他地方的股价.
A tale of two economies
Ranked by gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of a nation’s business activity, 中国是仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体.4 到2023年底，日本从第三名跌至第四名，落后于德国.5
In February 2024, the Nikkei surpassed a peak last seen in 1989.6 Conversely, Chinese stocks fell more than 40% from their peak in June 2021, before turning up slightly in February and March.7
GDP growth in Japan has been lackluster; in fact, the nation barely averted a recession at the end of 2023.8 What has been driving the market’s outperformance? 在与通货紧缩（或价格下跌）斗争了20多年之后, 日本通货膨胀的出现对企业有利. Japanese companies have been putting their capital to work, growing profits, and returning them to shareholders, which has attracted foreign investors. A weaker yen helped by making Japanese products cheaper overseas.9 3月19日，日本央行上调短期利率，结束了负利率时代, 2024.10
China’s GDP growth slowed to about 5.2023年为2%，因为消费和投资疲软削弱了商业活动. China is still growing faster than most advanced nations, but it’s contending with a years-long real estate crisis.11 Deflation has set in, 而就业不足和青年失业率已经上升到很高的水平, damaging consumer confidence.12 Moreover, 政府对私营部门明显的打压令投资者不安，也吓跑了许多外国公司.13 In early 2024, 中国政府采取了包括增加流动性在内的措施来帮助稳定股市, supporting property developers, and encouraging more bank lending and homebuying.14
Global economic outlook
国际货币基金组织（imf）看到了全球经济软着陆的道路, projecting steady growth of 3.1% for 2024, about the same rate as 2023. 在大多数地区迅速下降的通货膨胀预计将继续下降.15
这种充满希望的前景面临的下行风险包括财政挑战, high debt levels, and lingering economic strain from high interest rates. Price spikes caused by geopolitical conflict, supply disruptions, 或者，更持久的潜在通胀可能会阻止央行放松货币政策. 中国房地产行业进一步恶化的可能性是另一个令人担忧的原因.16
A world of opportunity
在不熟悉且透明度较低的外国市场进行尽职调查和确定合理投资可能会更加复杂, 潜在的风险可能是特定国家独有的. 共同基金或交易所交易基金（etf）提供了一种相对简单的方式来投资各种国际股票. 国际基金包括试图捕捉全球经济活动的广泛的全球基金, to regional funds and others that focus on a single country. The term “ex U.S.或“非美国”通常意味着该基金不包括国内股票, whereas “global” or “world” funds may include a mix of U.S. and international stocks.
Some funds are limited to developed nations, 而其他人则关注新兴（或发展中）经济体. 新兴国家公司的股票可能提供更大的增长潜力, 但与更发达的经济体相比，它们的风险更大，流动性更差. For any international stock fund, 了解基础证券所代表的国家组合是很重要的.
增加你在蓬勃发展的国外市场的敞口可能很诱人. However, 追逐业绩可能会导致你在高价买入股票，并在情况发生变化时遭受更严重的损失. 如果你的长期投资策略包括国际股票, 在市场波动期间，准备好紧紧持有——或利用较低的价格.
Diversification is a method used to help manage investment risk; it does not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. The return and principal value of all stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs fluctuate with changes in market conditions. 股票出售时的价值可能高于或低于其原价. ETF股票的供求关系可能导致它们以相对于标的股票价值的溢价或折价进行交易. 外国证券带有额外的风险，可能导致更大的股价波动, including differences in financial reporting and currency exchange risk; these risks should be carefully managed with your goals and risk tolerance in mind. 预测是基于当前情况，可能会发生变化，也可能不会实现.
Mutual funds and ETFs are sold by prospectus. 请在投资前仔细考虑投资目标、风险、收费及费用. The prospectus, 里面有这个和其他关于投资公司的信息, can be obtained from your financial professional. 在决定是否投资之前，一定要仔细阅读招股说明书.